Commercial content 21+.As the Jets and Giants get ready to collide Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium, I feel as if I can relate to both teams.
The Jets, three-point favorites, come in at 3-3, nearly the same winning percentage as my 10-11 in Best Bets. The Giants are 2-5, an identical match to my Lock of the Week record so far this season. Somewhere, the great, retired Hondo is rolling over on his chaise lounge.
Things have been looking up around here recently (for the teams, at least).
The Jets had a strong performance in a loss to the Chiefs on Taylor Swift Night, then defeated the Broncos and upset the Eagles, despite Sauce Gardner missing the Eagles game and D.J. Reed sitting out both with concussions.
After the bye week the Jets will get both of their top corners back, but it has to be nice for defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich to move forward knowing he can now count on the guys such as Bryce Hall, Craig James and Tae Hayes, if necessary.
The Giants were sitting at 1-5 after their near miss at Buffalo and carried a 205-minute streak without an offensive touchdown into last Sunday’s game against the Commanders. They put the ball in the end zone twice in the second quarter, and a rejuvenated defense sacked its way to a 14-7 win, keeping the low-hanging fruit of an NFC wild-card berth within reasonable reach.
The Giants’ vagabond offensive line held up very well against the Bills but did give up four sacks to the Commanders.
Betting on the NFL?
Figuring Quinnen Williams, Bryce Huff, Jermaine Johnson and Co. can match that number — especially with Andrew Thomas doubtful — and the Jets’ ballhawks can create a few turnovers. Having Gardner and Reed back also allows the Jets to stack the box on Saquon Barkley and bracket Darren Waller.
Tyrod Taylor will run out of weapons as he’s running out of time.
Offensively, the Jets do have to worry about the Giants’ pass rush and defensive coordinator Wink Martindale’s schemes. A pick-six or sack-fumble return could tilt the game Big Blue’s way in a hurry.
But Zach Wilson has avoided those disasters and shown well against some of the best defenses and opposing quarterbacks.
If the Jets can solve their red-zone problems and turn a few field goals into touchdowns, they’ll start winning games in the so-called softer part of the schedule by bigger margins.
The pick: Jets -3
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) over WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
The Eagles should have their alarms set for this one after surviving 34-31 in overtime at home against this opponent in Week 4. Yes, the home spread is tempting, but the Commanders lost at home by 20 to the Bears and scored just seven points against the Giants.
New England Patriots (+9.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS
Bill Belichick didn’t allow the Week 2 meeting, a 24-17 Miami win, to turn into a track meet for the Dolphins, and he knows how to go at Tua Tagovailoa to keep it from happening this time. Tyreek Hill’s hip status also makes me want to take the near double-digits here in the middle of the week.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+3) over Jacksonville Jaguars
This is a big-boy test for the Jaguars. They arguably have more top-end talent than do the Steelers, but except for a win over the Bills in London they’ve been feasting on middle-of-the-pack foes. The Steelers’ win over the Ravens is looking mighty impressive, and Mike Tomlin will play up the home-underdog disrespect angle.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+1) over New Orleans Saints
Another game in which the home coach, in this case the Colts’ Shane Steichen, can gin up some anger over the point spread. His team has scored at least 20 points in each game and is working Jonathan Taylor back in. Meanwhile, Chris Olave is getting yelled at by Derek Carr and stopped by traffic cops and Michael Thomas is on the trade block.
Los Angeles Rams (+6.5) over DALLAS COWBOYS
The Cowboys are in a bit of a lull with a 32-point loss to the 49ers, a three-point win over the Chargers and now coming off a bye. It’s been a while since they boat-raced the Giants, Jets and Patriots. I like the Rams’ diversity of weapons and how Matthew Stafford uses them.
Houston Texans (-3.5) over CAROLINA PANTHERS
I hear the people who don’t want to lay this many on the road with the Texans on principle, and also the crowd who believe it’s time the NFL’s last winless team gets its first win. My eyes, however, tell me the Texans and C.J. Stroud are pretty darn good.
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS
Classic tough spot for the Vikings traveling off a Monday night upset win over a top foe. Still, you have to respect what they did to the 49ers over the course of three hours, the travel is not far and they are 3-1 in their past four with the loss to the Chiefs.
Atlanta Falcons (-3) over TENNESSEE TITANS
Falcons are averaging just 13.2 ppg over their past five, so it makes it tough to take them as road favorites, but it appears Desmond Ridder is starting to grow with Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts and Co. Atlanta’s D is solid, and Titans’ QB situation is too unsettled.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-4) over Cleveland Browns
Props to the Browns for their win over the 49ers followed by their road survival win at Indianapolis. This is a long trip for back-to-back road games, and the 12th Man could be tough on PJ Walker, who has zero touchdown passes and three interceptions in two games.
Kansas City Chiefs (-7) over DENVER BRONCOS
Cornerback Kareem Jackson’s suspension for headhunting won’t help Denver’s cause against Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Maybe I’m wrong, but I do think K.C. is cognizant of putting on a show for the Swifties and that has translated to a few extra covers.
Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The injury worm has turned and now the Bengals seem to have a healthy Joe Burrow, and it’s the 49ers off two losses and now without Deebo Samuel and possibly Brock Purdy and Trent Williams. Jets fans will be rooting for Sam Darnold to beat this AFC contender, but it’s going to be tough.
Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) over ARIZONA CARDINALS
The Ravens are 2-1 on the road and also won in London, and are on point in a lot of ways at this point in the season. This is a lot of points, and the Cardinals could get a bit of a jolt if Kyler Murray returns, but I’ll ride with the known quantity.
Chicago Bears (+8.5) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Since the beginning of the 2022 season, including playoffs, the Chargers have played 24 games and won three of them by more points than this spread. So have at it, Tyson Bagent (aka Secret Bagent Man)!
Monday
DETROIT LIONS (-8.5) over Las Vegas Raiders
What the Raiders backers who expect Jimmy Garoppolo back for this one might be missing is that Glass Jimmy is always one hit away from being back on the cart. Happy to back Detroit after a 38-6 loss in Baltimore. Jared Goff has a number to shoot for and it’s really high.
Best bets: Colts, Jets, Rams.
Lock of the week: Colts (Locks 2-5 in 2023).
Last week: 6-7 overall, 0-3 Best Bets.
Thursday: Bills.
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