Andrey Rublev is nothing if not consistent.
The 26-year-old Russian defeated Alex de Minaur in a five-set thriller early Sunday morning to qualify for the quarterfinals of the 2024 Australian Open, marking his sixth trip to the quarters in his last seven Grand Slams (he was banned from playing in Wimbledon in 2022 because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine) and the 10th of his career.
Rublev famously has never made it to the semifinals.
Bookmakers don’t believe that early Tuesday morning will be the moment the Moscow native breaks his quarterfinal hoodoo, either.
Rublev is a +350 underdog to Jannik Sinner in their seventh career meeting. The Italian is 4-2 in the first six encounters.
Australian Open: Rublev vs. Sinner prediction
Everything in this match is pointing to Sinner.
The World No. 4 is white hot, having yet to drop a set in Australia, and has spent far less time on court than Rublev, who has bookended two straight-set wins with a pair of five-setters.
That said, we’re at the very beginning of the tennis calendar and I don’t put all that much stock into fatigue for the Russian, who played a brilliant fifth set against the tireless Alex de Minaur when everyone thought Rublev’s tank was empty. The 6-0 scoreline would suggest otherwise.
Sinner’s path to the quarterfinals has been far less arduous, which is a good thing for a player whose physicality has held him back in previous promising Grand Slam runs, but it’s also encouraging that Rublev has held his nerve in big moments.
He won a fifth-set tiebreaker against Thiago Seyboth Wild in Round 1 and came from 2-1 down to beat the Aussie de Minaur in front of his home crowd.
If Sinner continues his scintillating form, there’s very little chance that Rublev wins this match. The Italian has been broken once and has won eight of his 12 sets in under 10 games. That’s world-beating stuff.
But it’s also really hard to keep up that level, especially against a gamer like Rublev, who has a host of weapons to punish you.
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My bet here is that Rublev is able to lift his level a bit here and Sinner’s drops, giving the Russian a chance to provide value on his long price.
A play on the moneyline is worth a sprinkle, but if you are scared of the mental scarring from Rublev’s 0-9 record in quarterfinals and would opt to just back him to win the first set or cover the spread, I understand.
But if a player is good enough to make six quarterfinals in his last seven Grand Slam appearances, he’s good enough to pull this kind of upset.
The Bet: Andrey Rublev (+350, FanDuel)
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