Predictions are a tough game, even for us so-called experts. Did anyone see the 2010 Giants win the World Series? Or, for that matter, before them the 2003 Marlins, the 1991 Twins, the 1988 Dodgers or, of course, the 1969 Miracle Mets?
The races for MVP and Cy Young are a little easier since there are obvious superstars. The AL MVP race is a coin flip between the great Aaron Judge and the even greater Shohei Ohtani. I’ll flip my two-sided coin, which gives the edge to the doubly talented Ohtani, who may prove to be the greatest player ever. He certainly is the most well-rounded.
AL MVP
Shohei Ohtani, Angels: Who else? The Unicorn is in his platform year before free agency, not that he seems to care a bit about money. He’s very likely the most amazing and talented player any of us have ever seen. Eventually, one would assume he will have to cut back on either hitting or pitching, but that time obviously isn’t here yet. The big question is whether he will remain with the Angels throughout the season, and the guess here is that continuing owner Arte Moreno isn’t going to be the one who gives the go-ahead to trade the best who ever has played. If he was, he would have done it last year, when the multi-purpose Ohtani had multiple years to go. The guess here is this: Given the choice, Moreno would rather lose Ohtani in free agency.
NL MVP
Juan Soto, Padres: He wasn’t himself last summer when he came over to San Diego from Washington in the trade for possibly the most prospect capital in baseball history. In spring training, he was back in form. He’s the best all-around hitter in the game, and everyone knows it. In this lineup, he should be able to put on a show. The games will be scenes in San Diego this year, and Soto’s at-bats, between Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado, should be happenings.
AL Cy Young
Gerrit Cole, Yankees: It’s hard to believe he hasn’t won one yet. He probably should have in his last year in Houston (that looked like a make-good for teammate Justin Verlander, who should have won a different one, as his wife, Kate Upton, astutely pointed out). Cole is one of those big-time free agents who has proved to be worth every penny, even if he gave up a few too many long balls last year. He has really looked in form this spring coming off his excellent postseason.
NL Cy Young
Justin Verlander, Mets: Let’s face it, Verlander is one of the greatest pitchers of all time. Plus, he’s coming off a season in which he had a 1.75 ERA, at age 39 no less. He says he wants to pitch well into his 40s, and at this point, only a fool wouldn’t believe him. The guy has always believed in himself, which might have been the root of his troubles with new teammate Max Scherzer early in their careers in Detroit, but it has made Verlander what he is: simply the best.
AL Rookie of the Year
Anthony Volpe, Yankees: You couldn’t help but be excited watching this Jersey boy (Watchung) during spring training, delivering time after time at bat and on the basepaths. The shortstop is an exciting young man with the perfect attitude. It looks as if he was born to be a Yankee. Among others, outfielder Masataka Yoshida from the Red Sox will produce.
NL Rookie of the Year
Miguel Vargas, Dodgers: Everybody who comes up with the Dodgers does well, so why not Vargas? They have big expectations both for Vargas in the infield and for James Outman, who looks like the center fielder of the future. Vargas had an unusual spring during which he initially wasn’t allowed to swing due to a hairline fracture in a finger (and still managed a few walks). He looks like a star in the making. Outfielder Corbin Carroll of the Diamondbacks just got $111 million while still a rookie, so there are expectations there, too.
AL Manager of the Year
Terry Francona, Guardians: The man is a magician. So why bet against him? If he’s not the best manager in the bigs, he’s got to be close. It’s uncertain how he managed to win last year. But who’s willing to be against him doing it again?
NL Manager of the Year
Rob Thomson, Phillies: After getting his chance late in life, Thomson made good on it, nearly turning the 2022 season into a Philadelphia Story. He has been given a better team this time around, but folks are still picking the Mets and Braves. Don’t be shocked if Philly pulls off the perceived upset.
This Team Will Surprise: Angels. They had a boffo offseason, adding to their depth in virtually every area and giving themselves their best chance to reach the playoffs in a long while. They even got a bargain or two (see left-hander Tyler Anderson) in a winter of shocking spending. Ohtani and Mike Trout — arguably the two best players in baseball — may finally get to play on a winner — a playoff team, anyway — not that it means Ohtani will stay long-term.
This Team Will Disappoint: Dodgers. They still will be good of course, but no team lops off tens of millions of dollars in salary and doesn’t suffer some kind of regression. They still should make the playoffs, but the expected 96 wins look a bit steep with World Baseball Classic hero Trea Turner and so many others gone.
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This Player Will Become A Big Story: Bryan Reynolds, Pirates. It seems there’s a decent chance the outfielder will get his wish to be traded. With three years to go before free agency, the trade value is very high. The Pirates, of course, want to guard against sending the wrong message. But they’ve sent so many bad messages so far it may not matter much. Reynolds had a rough start to spring, and you have to wonder if his contract talks or the trade talk is affecting him.
This Player Will Surprise: Masataka Yoshida, Red Sox. After watching him hit in the WBC, maybe he won’t take anyone by surprise. But folks were stunned when Boston gave the outfielder that $90 million deal at the Winter Meetings. Other teams seemed to see him as worth half that, but the Red Sox may have been right about this one. And while no one expects folks to forget the loss of Bogaerts, Yoshida came for a third as much money. So from that standpoint, he looks like a bargain.
This Player Is Going To Disappoint This Season: Kenley Jansen, Red Sox. If anyone’s not going to like the pitch clock, it’s Jansen. The closer certainly looked revived last year in Atlanta, but at some point he has to slow down. Not on the mound, of course. There he needs to speed up.
This Team Will Be The Best: Padres. Not sure if they will be the best, but they definitely will be the best show. It’s hard to recall a team with four superstars at the top of the lineup, which is why they should sell out the season. Times certainly have changed in San Diego. Good for owner Peter Seidler and company.
This Team Will Be The Worst: Athletics. This is an easy one. Their front office can win with nickels, but not with pennies. Ownership appears to be trying to punish the city of Oakland for failing forever to approve a new stadium. They’re barely a major league team.
This Team Will Win The World Series: Padres. Of course. It’s finally time for a parade in San Diego for a bona fide major champion. America’s finest city deserves nothing less. The I-5 World Series should be fun. Padres over Angels in 7.
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